Monthly Data Expected to Track Increase in Pending Sales, but Nearby Recovery Still Unlikely

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On Wednesday, NAR will report on pending home sales for May; data from housing economist, Thomas Lawler, shows that the increase in pending sales for May will probably create a double-digit gain from April, said the Wall Street Journal. However, a monthly uptick may not mean much.

After months of yo-yo data, economists, homeowners, homebuyers, and real estate professionals alike are likely set in their own beliefs as to when recovery will occur, despite monthly changes giving or taking hope. Several economists have said that recovery is not likely by the end of this year.

“We’re going to be flat through 2012 or 2013,” said Christopher Thornberg, a housing economist at Beacon Economics to the Wall Street Journal.

Previous accounts from economists have projected similar estimates, with another economist from Fiserv predicting stability within two years. So it seems that roughly 2014 has become a common guess as to when things may start looking up.

However, the year-over-year gain in pending sales will likely be up for May 2011, but these numbers will be humbled due to the decrease in pending sales in May 2010, when home-buyer tax credits expired.

Another trusted source for market outlook, S&P Case-Shiller, adds their data through April, showing that first quarter home prices were marked at new lows.

The Commerce Department also recently reported that new home sales, which represent 20 percent of the market, fell for the first time in three months this May. The US has experienced a fall of 18 percent for new home sales in the two years since the recession has ended. This struggle has been designated as a sign that the market is unlikely to rebound this year.

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