Pending single-family sales in Miami-Dade County were up in July, according to the MIAMI Association of REALTORS (MIAMI).

Pending sales were up 2% year over year, while showing appointments were up 8%. While not all pending sales close, the metric is a good indicator of future transactions.

“Even with mortgage rates at 20-year highs, Miami real estate continues to show rising single-family pending sales and increasing condo luxury sales,” said MIAMI Chairman Ines Hegedus Garcia. “It’s a testament to South Florida’s market fundamentals — high percentage of cash buyers, rising year-over-year population — but a lack of inventory, particularly new listings, is impacting further growth for this high-demand market.”

Single-family closings fell 8.9% in July, down from last year’s historic transaction levels. Total home sales fell 13.6%. MIAMI says elevated mortgage rates and lack of inventory are to blame — rates were at 5.09% in June 2022 and peaked at 6.71% in June of this year.

Amid high mortgage rates and limited housing supply, Miami home prices rose 10.8% year over year in July to $631,670 from $570,000. Single-family prices have risen for 140 consecutive months — over 11.5 years — the longest-running streak on record. Miami ranks fourth in the U.S. for annual home-price appreciation, according to the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index.

“Miami-Dade’s price growth of over 10% is phenomenal at a time when mortgage rates are hovering at 7%, a strong indication of the pent-up demand that’s going to burst out as mortgage rates trend lower in 2024,” said MIAMI Chief Economist Gay Cororaton. “It’s tempting for buyers to wait for interest rates to decline. But keep in mind that there’s a shortage of homes for sale, so prices are likely not going to fall, and expect buyer competition to intensify in 2024 as mortgage rates decline.”

Inventory in Miami sat around 9,000 listings in July, well below the historical average of 20,302 listings and down 10.1% year over year. New listings also fell on a year-over-year basis, with only 1,255 listings entered into the Multiple Listing Service.

Months of inventory increased 3.2% to 3.2 months, indicating a seller’s market. Condo inventory, meanwhile, rose 54.5% to 5.1 months. While that’s also considered a seller’s market, it’s much closer to the six- to nine month-supply seen in a healthy market.