S&P’s newest Case-Shiller report revels a slow climb towards balance and a strong end to 2014.

It was another month of stellar performance for home prices in the Miami market, according to the newest Case-Shiller Home Price Indices from Standard & Poor’s. In the Magic City, home prices rose a startling 9.5 percent from October 2013 to October 2014, and 0.4 percent month-over-month.

Miami’s increases represent the strongest year-over-year gains in the country, far exceeding the national trajectory, which took a substantial and expected dip heading into the fall. The pace of Miami’s gains, however, did slip from September to October, but the slowing isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Prices in Miami have been skyrocketing this year, and while, as I reported earlier this week, they remain near affordable 2004 levels, continual increases could lead the city into another boom. Thankfully, the slowing signifies a return to balance, which should continue in 2015.

A National Balance

Once again, local trends were antithetical to what’s happening on the national scene:

• The 10- and 20-City Composites are up 4.4 and 4.7 percent year-over-year, respectively; that’s down from September’s yearly gains of 4.8 and 4.9 percent, and represent the smallest yearly increase in two years.
• Furthermore, the National Case-Shiller Index was down 0.2 percent from September to October, which marks two consectutive months of decreases for the index.
• Ten of the cities tracked by S&P stumbled with lower monthly figures, while eight boasted increases.

Blitzer Predicts Strong Winter

Towards the tail end of summer, heading into fall, housing prices were failing to keep pace with 2013, stumbling and, in many cases, falling, but David M. Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, put things into perspective, suggesting the market could end the year with something of a bang.

“After a long period when home prices rose, but at a slower pace with each passing month, we are seeing hints that prices could end 2014 on a strong not and accelerate into 2015,” he said.

Blitzer points out that only two months earlier, all 20 cities tracked by S&P were “experiencing weakening annual price increases.” However, in September only 18 cites saw weakness and in October that number was cut even further to 12.

“Seasonally adjusted, all 20 cites had higher prices than a month ago,” Blitzer said.