Experts Speculate on Housing Double Dip

by admin

Today, MacroMarkets LLC announced the results of the March 2011 Home Price Expectations Survey, compiled from 111 responses of a diverse group of economists, real estate experts, investment and market strategists. The survey is based upon the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index over the coming five years.

Robert Shiller, MacroMarkets co-founder and chief economist said, “Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate. Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013. This uninspiring view must be influenced by the persistently weak market fundamentals – high unemployment, supply overhang, an unabated foreclosure crisis, and constrained mortgage credit.”

Shiller noted that there continues to be significant dispersion among the panelists regarding their individual home price forecasts and added, “A few respondents do see a real recovery, predicting prices up 20 percent or so by 2015. The differences of opinion are interesting but unsurprising in light of continuing and unprecedented fallout from the historic bubble.”

Among the 111 panelists, an estimation of home prices for the next five years was gauged. Estimations for the next five years (from Q4 to previous year Q4) are as follows:

  • 2011: -1.38 percent
  • 2012: +1.26 percent
  • 2013: +2.72 percent
  • 2014: +3.19 percent
  • 2015: +3.42 percent

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