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Is Miami’s Strong Market Too Dependent on Foreign Clients?

by James Bellandi

rsz_miami_skyline_south

Creative Commons: joiseyshowaa. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Miami_skyline_south.jpg

In March, Miami was described as one of the nation’s most popular markets, making good news not unusual for the city. However, can the numbers hold in the face of declining international interest?

BUILDER online is looking at the 50 largest housing markets and evaluating vital housing stats, employment information and population to analyze what’s good, bad and the bottom line for housing in the areas. We’ve done our own analysis of the markets on the list based on the data we’ve found.

The Good: Miami’s home prices have been rising steadily, and are up 7 percent in April from April 2014. New residential construction also rose 19 percent in April year-over-year, and single-family homes sales were up 8 percent. Overall, Miami is seeing strong growths in virtually every sector, creating very strong buyer and seller confidence and making it an appealing market to break ground in.

The Bad: One of Miami’s biggest customers in the residential market is foreign investors. While the limited niche has been working for Miami up until now, it’s a cause for concern when looking at Miami compared to other markets, especially when foreign buyers may be looking elsewhere. All-cash sales in Miami were down 12.5 percent year-over-year in April. Considering that 81 percent of foreign buyers in Miami-Dade, according to the Miami Association of Realtors, purchase their properties all-cash, that could mean that foreign business is waning.

That change also poses a problem for Miami’s domestic homebuyers, because of Miami’s high level of inequality – the 95th percentile earns 14.8 times the income of the 20th percentile, $169,855 to just $11,497. In addition, the luxury listings in the top 5 percent are six times pricier than the rest of the market in Metro Miami. In Miami Beach, this number rises to a shocking 11.6 percent, the largest disparity in the country. If foreign investors pull out, there isn’t a strong domestic base to fall back onto, and Miami’s housing market will suffer.

The Bottom Line: Most things for Miami look strong on the numbers end. Homes are selling, job growth is healthy and the demand is there. The looming idea of whether or not the international money will stay in Miami or go elsewhere, though, casts a shadow across the its normally sunny shores.

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