In its 2016 Florida Housing Market Forecast, research provider John Burns Real Estate Consulting outlined what it expects to be the defining characteristics of the state’s market this year.

The Retiree Effect – In 2010, 27 percent (5 million) of Florida’s population was in the pre-retirement age group of 45 to 65 (more than any other age group), according to the state’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research. By 2020, the state’s 65-and-up population is expected to have grown by more than 1.2 million. Because of the anticipated spike in retirees this year, John Burns is predicting two things: moderating job growth and a “strengthen(ed) sales velocity in age-restricted and age-targeted communities.” The consulting group went on to specifically predict slowed economic growth in Miami and a possible spike in large land parcels around the state being used for new “retirement destinations.”

Slowing Appreciation – Home price increases in Florida have remained strong in recent years, with the state’s biggest metro, Miami, often posting double-digit year-over-year price increases. However, John Burns is projecting that “rapid price appreciation in local markets will be rare.” Of course, the group doesn’t expect growth to reverse, but rather that appreciation in places like Orlando and Miami will slow.

Not a Land Rush – With Florida’s population aging and employment growth expected to slow, the state is facing labor shortages, which when coupled with rising construction costs and slowing home price appreciation, are expected to lead to tighter margins. The report read: “While some land sellers will agree with lower buyer expectations, we expect land market transactions will slow in 2016.”